Dear Dave,
My how things have turned around in a year! Just this time last year we were fighting with Kansas City to stay out of the bottom spot in the division (and we came so close to winning that battle, too), and now we're two games up in the AL Central. First place!!! And with Carlos Guillen coming back, and maybe Bonderman and Zumaya in the bullpen soon, things are looking rosy.
Except they're not. At least not for me. Now I consider this team a World Series caliber ballclub, despite what many experts might say. We have two dominate front of the rotation guys in Verlander and Jackson and a bullpen full of hard throwers that are really coming together. In October, that's what wins! And our defense has been solid all year too, led by All-Stars Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge.
So what's the problem? It's the offense, Dave. Yes, Miguel Cabrera is doing just fine. Yes, Brandon Inge has given us more than enough "pop" from third base with his homerun outburst. And Granderson has 20+ homers out of the leadoff spot...but after that? Nothing. Literally nothing. We can't get anything going, Dave! Besides the occasional long bomb, we cannot manufacture runs, and this is a problem.
Let me throw some numbers at you:
~3.65. No, that's not our team ERA. That's the average amount of runs we've scored in July per game. I don't need to tell you, but I will anyway- that's not good.
~40%. That's the percentage of games in July (8 out of 20) that we've scored only 1 or 2 runs in a game. This statistic not only shows we're not scoring runs, but we're doing it at an alarmingly consistent rate.
~0. The number of games we've won when scoring only 1 or 2 runs in a game. You are asking our pitchers to be superhuman, and Armando Gallarga and Luke French are not superhuman.
~3.38. Our average margin of victory. So? Even when we win, we're not blowing out teams. Closers gets saves when they hold a game that's difference in score is three or less runs. We are constantly having to hold and save our leads...we don't have the comfortable wins.
~54. The number of times I saw Edwin Jackson shake his head left to right in disbelief last Sunday against the Yankees after he went 7+ innings (out-pitching Joba) allowing a measly two runs...only to get the loss. Apparently I'm not the only one frustrated.
I write you this letter now because on Friday is July 31st- the MLB trading deadline. I know our payroll is still high, and I know we don't have much in the farm system, but from what I hear, you are one hell of a GM. I trust you and I trust your skills, and I'm hoping you can work some magic for our ballclub. Find that spark for us, Dave. Get us that hitter (and hopefully not Troy Glaus or Milton Bradley, like I've heard rumored...) that will get our offense going and carry us into October.
~Mikey D
P.S.~ Did you see last night's game against Texas where we only scored two fucking runs? Yea, me too...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
6 comments:
"Look, a note!"
(flips it over)
"Look, a letter!"
Oh, Spongebob Squarepants...
I think an avg margin of victory of 3+ is comfortable.
Oh sure, we win by 3, that sounds great!
But which would you rather win by, 10 or 3? My point is that we have too few blowout wins, and more of the tight variety where there is more of a chance of a team coming back.
Here are the average margin of victories for the other division leaders in July, just to give you a comparison:
New York Yankees: 2.59 (the exception...they've been able to win 10-8, however)
Anaheim Angels: 3.76
LA Dodgers: 3.77
Philadelphia Phillies: 6.95 (they are hot)
Chicago Cubs: 4.43
Again, besides the Yankees (who have proven they can win 11-10 games), we are at least about a .5 run behind in differential compared to the other leaders. That might not seem like a lot, but in baseball that's huge.
That's why the save statistic is so misleading sometimes. Heath Bell of the Padres, for example. He's one of the league leaders in saves, but why is that? The Padres suck! It's because all their games are close. Their wins are all by 3 or less runs for the most part because they are incapable of beating teams consistently by more than that.
And take the Angels of last year. Awesome record and Frankie Rodriguez set the single-season save mark...Out in the first round. They couldn't score. Their offense was good enough to win 3-2, and their closer was good enough to hold the games, but when they played the Sox, they never scored more than 4 runs in any of the 4 games. And while they won 3-2, they lost all the rest.
I don't want to be the Angels of last year. I'm happy Rodney is doing well this year, but I don't want him to be the saves leader in the league (that's not saying I want him to blow saves, though...). I want a team that isn't limited to winning by just 3 runs or less. That's not comfortable to me.
I am actually going to contend that they are in an ok position to win the division without making any moves. We have a lot of guys hitting below their career averages, but I think they have a chance to put it together and peak at the right time. I am ok with them being in an offensive slump in July because it means they could hit their stride in Sept/Oct. Remember the 2007 Rockies?
They're not going to the series, though. That will be reserved for the Yankees and Cardinals.
The 2007 Rockies were lightning in a bottle. Name another time where something as ridiculous as the run they went on happened.
And you said it: we are in an "ok" position to win the division. I want it to be a "good" or "great" position. And I definitely don't want to sit back and hope that guys break out of their slumps...because if they don't, we're going to look back and wonder why we didn't make a move in July. Make a move now to benefit the team, and if they start hitting, all the better.
If they get to October, anything can happen. Verlander and Jackson both proved in the series in New York that they can hold down the Yankees lineup. If we can get something offensively (4 or 5 runs), we will have a chance.
Are you with me on the Cardinals???
Post a Comment