Mikey D

Every year I end up putting a little bit of money into my account on my favorite betting site and every year I end up losing it betting on games. It's only a small amount ($20), so it's not like I'm losing a lot. But still, I'm losing.

But through all my losing, I have developed a set of rules in which I plan on following in order to become more successful. Of course I'm not always going to be a winner, but I can win more than I'm going to lose...at least I hope...by following these rules.

I submit to you the "Rules of Betting". I created these in my head last week before picking games, and I failed to follow them and lost. I am now putting them on virtual paper and following them religiously from this point forward.

The Rules of Betting

1. Never Bet On Division Games.
Don't do it. You will always get burned. No matter how good the match-up is, no matter how many points one team is favored over the other, they are just too unpredictable. This is my cardinal rule...and the one I always break. Like last week, for example. I took the Lions to cover over the Vikings, and the Eagles to beat the Redskins. I broke the rule twice. No matter what justification you can make in your head for wanting to bet on a particular division game, ignore it. Even if you are so confident that the Vikings will manhandle the Lions this week, please, please, please, just stay away. Even if you're right once, you'll definitely be wrong three other times. For your own peace of mind, follow my cardinal rule.

2. Take Advantage of the West Coast-East Coast Games.
If a team is flying across the country to play another, 75% of the time that team will lose. I just made up that statistic, but it feels about right. The only exception should be if the team that is flying across the country is decently good and playing a mediocre/bad team. Other than that, bet the home team. Last week for example, I did end up taking Miami at home. You had San Diego, a mediocre team, flying across the country to play another mediocre team. Not only that, Miami was coming off a bye and playing a porous San Diego defense. Take the home team. That 75% success rate rises even higher if the team that is traveling also traveled the week before. Take Buffalo. Before last week, they had to fly into St. Louis, then they had to go and fly to Arizona. That's a lot of traveling! And Arizona took full advantage. Not convinced? Remember what the Jets did to Arizona at home? Even when Arizona stayed on the east coast??? Back to back cross country games are a death sentence. These are safer games to pick than most would think.

3. Don't Take the Points on Teams that are Favored by Double-Digits.
Vegas wants you to. They make teams like the Cowboys 17 point favorites against the lowly Bengals. And then they take your money. They make the undefeated Patriots 21 point favorites against the Eagles, and then they take your money. There are double-digit blowouts and wins every week, but they aren't predictable, so you sure as hell can't bank on them. This is professional football were talking about, with actual professionals. They read the papers and see the betting lines...and they all have pride and are competitors. You can't tell me that the Bengals walked into Dallas last week with a "nobody is giving us a chance" chip on their shoulder and weren't prepared to play their hardest. This is Vegas' trap. The week before last the Cowboys were 11-point favorites over the Redskins. That's a double whammy. Double-digit point spread and a division game...whoa, don't touch that with a ten-foot pole. Point is, the Redskins covered with ease. In fact, they won. This week it's the Redskins-Rams. The Skins were 15 point favorite. Are they 15 points better than St. Louis? Maybe. But St. Louis is coming off a bye, have Bulger back, and are prepared to play hard for the new coach. Couple that with the Skins coming off the high of two physically demanding wins, and I could see St. Louis covering. Vegas' little trap.

4. Don't Bet on College Games.
Talk about unpredictable. You could take Florida at home against Mississippi and all the points in the world and feel comfortable, and end up being a loser. There's a guy at work who only bets on college games, and every week he has some sob story. They usually end with this: "They had it! And then the _______ (insert team) scored 21 in the last four minutes to screw me!" Every week one of the games he bets on ends like this. It's too unpredictable to even pick winners, much less picking teams to cover points. Stick to the professionals. At least you know that the Giants will beat the fuck out of the Seahawks. Very good teams always win against piss-poor teams in the pros, and that's not the case in college.

5. For Peace of Mind, Play Teasers.
A teaser allows you to add points to the spread. For example, last week Miami was 7 point underdogs against San Diego. I played a seven-point teaser, which added 7 points to the spread. So Miami became a 14 point underdog, and in order for me to win, all Miami had to do was win, or lose by less than 14. It's safer. The payout is less, but it's worth the piece of mind. It makes picking those underdog over favorite games a little easier.

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So those are my rules. I have reviewed this week's match-ups, and here's what I'm betting on:

First, I'm playing it ultra-safe this week because I'm down to my last $10. I am playing a ten-point teaser, and if I get these three games correct I will double my money, putting me right back where I started.

1) Green Bay (+12) over Seattle- I know Green Bay is struggling, but so is Seattle. I just cannot fathom Green Bay losing by more than 12 to Seattle, who has Hasselbeck banged up and Branch out again. Plus Green Bay needs this game...and god Seattle is bad.

2) Baltimore (+14.5) over Indianapolis- This defense is really good. The Colts aren't going to be able to run the ball, which will make them one-dimensional. One-dimensional teams aren't going to get two-touchdown plus wins that often. Plus I like the Ravens to run the ball all day, keeping the clock moving and the score low.

3) St. Louis (+23.5) over Washington- Rule number 3. Just too many points.

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We shall see.

~Mikey D