Friday, July 4, 2008

MLB All-Star Predictions

You knew the All-Star game starters are being announced this Sunday, right? Haha, right. Well since I have nothing to do all day now, I decided to pour over the stats and come up with my All-Star line-up from top to bottom. Now last year each squad had 32 players, so I'm going off that. I tried to keep it similar and realistic by including the same number of position player and pitchers that were on the teams last year.

Anyway, I looked at all stats and tried to pick players that excelled in multiple categories. If you were a hitter, I wanted a well-rounded player who hit for average, power, and knocked in runs. If you were a pitcher, I wanted a solid ERA along with a decent number of innings pitched. Strikeouts, saves, and wins were all plusses. I also tried to look at players who made valuable contributions to the success of their respective team.

So, without further ado...

AL Starters:
C- Joe Mauer (MIN)- .326, 3 HRs, 36 RBI (AL Batting Leader)
1B- Justin Morneau (MIN)- .310, 12 HRS, 63 RBI
2B- Ian Kinsler (TEX)- .323, 13 HRs, 50 RBI, 114 hits (1st in AL, 2nd in MLB)
SS- Michael Young (TEX)- .288, 7 HRs, 45 RBI
3B- Alex Rodriguez (NYY)- .317, 17 HRs, 47 RBI (in only 66 games!)
OF- Milton Bradley (TEX)- .320, 17 HRs, 51 RBI
OF- Josh Hamilton (TEX)- .308, 19 HRs, 82 RBI (MLB League Leader)
OF- Jermaine Dye (CWS)- .305, 19 HRS, 52 RBI
DH- Aubrey Huff (BAL)- .283, 17 HRs, 52 RBI
SP- Cliff Lee (CLE)- 11-1, 2.26 ERA, 93K, 111.2 IP

AL Reserves:
Pitchers:
SP-Justin Duchscherer (OAK)- 9-5, 1.96 ERA (MLB League Leader), 59 K, 92 IP
SP- Joe Saunders (LAA)- 12-4, 3.04 ERA, 58 K, 112.1 IP
SP- Ervin Santana (LAA)- 9-3, 3.28 ERA, 106K, 115.1 IP
SP- Roy Halladay (TOR)- 9-6, 2.90 ERA, 106K, 130.1 IP, 6 Complete Games
SP- Felix Hernandez (SEA)- 6-5, 2.83 ERA, 93K, 108 IP
RP- Francisco Rodriguez (LAA)- 1.93 ERA, 35 K, 34 Saves
RP- George Sherrill (BAL)- 3.62 ERA, 38 K, 27 Saves
RP- Joe Nathan (MIN)- 1.30 ERA, 38 K, 23 Saves
RP- Joakim Soria (KC)- 1.22 ERA, 41 K, 23 Saves
RP- Mariano Rivera (NYY)- 0.96 ERA, 42 K, 22 Saves
RP- Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)- 2.00 ERA, 47 K, 24 Saves

Fielders:
C- Dioner Navarro (TB)- .312, 4 HR, 33 RBI
1B- Kevin Youkilis (BOS)- .308, 13 HRs, 51 RBI
2B- Dustin Pedroia (BOS)- .309, 9 HRs, 39 RBI
SS- Derek Jeter (NYY)- .279, 4 HRs, 35 RBI
3B- Mike Lowell (BOS)- .300, 12 HRs, 49 RBI
3B- Evan Longoria (TB)- .275, 15 HRs, 50 RBI
OF- Magglio Ordonez (DET)- .307, 12 HRs, 50 RBI
OF- Manny Ramirez (BOS)- .279, 16 HRs, 53 RBI
OF- JD Drew (BOS)- .304, 16 HRs, 51 RBI
OF- Grady Sizemore (CLE)- .267, 21 HRs (AL league leader), 47 RBI, 20 SB
OF- Carlos Quinten (CWS)- .276, 19 HRs, 61 RBI

AL's "I Wanted To, But I Just Didn't Have Room" List:
1) C- A.J. Pierzynski (CWS)- .303, 7 HRs, 32 RBI
2) 2B- Brian Roberts (BAL)- .291, 6 HRs, 31 RBI, 22 SB
3) OF- Jose Guillen (KC)- .280, 13 HRs, 64 RBI
4) OF- David DeJesus (KC)- .321, 9 HR, 43 RBI
5) RP- Bobby Jenks (CWS)- 1.95 ERA, 19 K, 18 Saves

Observations:
I think the AL's roster is more debatable (stat wise) than the NL. I included some guys whose numbers might not have been as good as others (but were fairly close), but have meant a lot to their individual team, like Carlos Quentin, Evan Longoria, Dioner Navarro, or George Sherrill. I was shocked when I looked at the AL starting line-up and discovered I had four Texas Rangers starting. Even more shocking was the fact that I have only one Yankee and Red Sox (Alex Rodriguez) and the fact that only one starter is on a team in first place (Jermaine Dye). At the same time, however, every player in the batting line-up is on a team .500 or better. Kind of interesting.

I shocked myself by putting Aubrey Huff as the starting DH. I had no idea he was having the kind of year he was. With Matsui and Ortiz shelved, he has the best numbers of all the DHs. Giambi is comparable (who I thought I was going to start), but Huff has hit for a higher average. Hey, it's not a sexy pick, but he's the most deserving.

The AL starting pitching this year makes you go "who?", but it's the relief pitching that is lights out. If you're an NL batter, you do not want to see a single one of those filthy mother fuckers. The AL could use their starters for three innings and let the bullpen take over, which is absolutely scary.

Seven Red Sox and Yankees on the bench (6 Red Sox (6!), only 1 Yankee). Chill out Boston and New York. You got represented.

And just one Tiger...and it was hard to find one deserving...


NL Starters:
C- Brian McCann (ATL)- .295, 14 HRs, 46 RBI
1B- Lance Berkman (HOU)- .353, 22 HRs, 68 RBI, 12 SB
2B- Chase Utley (PHI)- .300, 24 HRs (MLB League Leader), 67 RBI
SS- Hanley Ramirez (FLA)- .299, 20 HRs, 41 RBI, 21 SB
3B- Chipper Jones (ATL)- .389 (MLB League Leader), 17 HRs, 47 RBI
OF- Carlos Lee (HOU)- .292, 19 HRs, 65 RBI
OF- Xavier Nady (PIT)- .323, 12 HRs, 52 RBI
OF- Corey Hart (MIL)- .292, 14 HRs, 52 RBI, 12 SB
DH- Albert Pujols (STL)- .345, 17 HRs, 47 RBI
SP- Tim Lincecum (SF)- 10-1, 2.49 ERA, 122 K (MLB League Leader), 115.2 IP

NL Reserves:
Pitchers:
SP- Edinson Volquez (CIN)- 10-3, 2.24 ERA (NL League Leader), 113 K, 104.2 IP
SP- Brandon Webb (ARI)- 12-4 (MLB League Leader), 3.43 ERA, 100K, 118 IP
SP- Ben Sheets (MIL)- 9-2, 2.83 ERA, 91 K, 111.1 IP, 3 CG
SP- Aaron Cook (COL)- 11-5, 3.38 ERA, 59 K, 125.1 IP
SP- Dan Haren (ARI)- 8-4, 2.85 ERA, 96 K, 110.2 IP
SP- Cole Hammels (PHI)- 9-5, 3.22 ERA, 110 K, 128.2 IP (NL League Leader)
SP- Carlos Zambrano (CHC)- 8-3, 3.13 ERA, 68 K, 106.1 IP
RP- Kerry Wood (CHC)- 2.38 ERA, 53 K, 21 Saves
RP- Brad Lidge (PHI)- 0.79 ERA, 47 K, 19 Saves
RP- Billy Wagner (NYM)- 1.85 ERA, 40 K, 19 Saves
RP- J.C. Romero (PHI)- 4-1, 40 G, 1.91 ERA, 30K

Fielders:
C- Russell Martin (LAD)- .306, 9 HRs, 40 RBI, 8 SB
1B- Adrian Gonzalez (SD)- .288, 21 HRs, 68 RBI
1B- Derek Lee (CHC)- .296, 15 HR, 52 RBI
2B- Dan Uggla (FLA)- .289, 23 HRs, 58 RBI
2B- Brandon Phillips (CIN)- .289, 14 HRs, 54 RBI, 17 SB
SS- Christian Guzman (WAS)- .317, 5 HRs, 27 RBI, 116 Hits (MLB League Leader)
3B- David Wright (NYM)- .292, 16 HRs, 65 RBI
OF- Matt Holliday (COL)- .336, 10 HRs, 40 RBI, 10 SB
OF- Ryan Ludwick (STL)- .292, 16 HRs, 56 RBI
OF- Patt Burrell (PHI)- .278, 21 HRs, 52 RBI
OF- Nate McClouth (PIT)- .282, 15 HRs, 53 RB

NL's "I Wanted To, But I Just Didn't Have the Room" List:
1) 1B- Ryan Howard (PHI)- .219, 22 HRs, 72 RBI (NL League Leader)
2) SP- Ryan Dempster (CHC)- 9-3, 3.24 ERA, 93 K, 111.0 IP
3) C- Geovany Soto (CHC)- .283, 13 HRs, 50 RBI
4) SP- Johan Santana (NYM)- 7-7, 3.01 ERA, 103 K, 113.2 IP
5) SP- Jair Jurrjens (ATL)- 8-4, 3.09 ERa, 75 K, 105 IP

Observations:
The NL's starting pitching is RIDICULOUS. The entire pitching staff could have been composed of starting pitchers. There were a lot of starters I left off this roster, and I'd have a tough time arguing against people who'd say they should be on. Despite the strenght of the starting pitching, the NL bullpen was relatively weak. There were only a few dominate closers, and a lot of mediocre guys, which is why I gave Romero the last spot on the staff (I think he is the best set-up man in baseball).

First base was the deepest position for the NL. You can pick and choose a half dozen guys for that spot. The outfield was definitely the weakest...I really struggled finding guys to fit in there. There were about ten guys with all similar stats, but none of them that just jumped off the page.

Looking at the NL reserves is like looking at a second starting line-up. Any of those guys could be argued as starters, and their numbers prove it. That's a legit bench.


All-Star Game Prediction:
If I went by stats alone, I'd have to go with the National League...but I'm not doing that. First, the American League may not have as strong of starting pitching as the NL, but in a game where pitchers are asked to pitch only 1 inning apiece, I'd rather have a team of strong relievers than starters. They just know how to pitch in short time frames, unlike starters who need time to warm-up and prepare.

Second, this game is New York's Yankee Stadium. The farewell. I would hope these AL guys have a little pride in sending Yankee Stadium out in style.

Third, the AL has quite the win streak going. The last time the NL won was 1996. Do you bet against recent history? And remember, the AL just finished spanking the NL in interleague play...

I still go back to the pitching. I trust those relievers. I'll ride them to victory.

Prediction: American League 8, National League 3.
Game MVP: Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox


***
WARNING: Depressive Stats Below.

After going through all of the stats, I stumbled across our bullpen from last year (Okay, Jurrjens was a spot starter...but he did do some long relief!). Ummm...what the hell? Where was all this last year!?!? Notice, however, they are all on NL clubs...but still.

Tim Byrdak (HOU)- 2-0, 30 G, 1.67 ERA
Jason Grilli (COL)- 2-1, 30 G, 2.79 ERA
Chad Durbin (PHI)- 2-1, 32 G, 1.58 ERA
Jair Jurrjens (ATL)- 8-4, 3.09 ERA, 75, 105 IP

Fucking A.

Happy 4th.

~Mikey D

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