With the MLB draft coming up, I took a look back at previous years' drafts. I think in baseball, more than any other sport, the misses far outweigh the hits. I mean if 5 out of the first 30 players drafted end up being "quality" then it's been a good draft year. It's quite remarkable.
In the spirit of the draft, I've looked at the Tigers' drafts from 1997-2007 to show what they picked, and what they could've picked (first round only).
Here's what the Tigers drafted, and could've had...
1997: Drafted Matt Anderson, P (1st overall)
Could've Had: Vernon Wells-OF, Jon Garland-P, Troy Glaus-3B, Lance Berkman-1B
1998: Drafted Jeff Weaver, P (14th overall)
Could've Had: C.C. Sabathia-P, Brad Lidge-P
1999: Drafted Eric Munson, C (3rd overall)
Could've Had: Barry Zito-P, Ben Sheets-P, Bret Myers-P, Alex Rios-OF
2000: Drafted Matthew Wheatland, P (8th overall)
Could've Had: Chase Utley-2B, Adam Wainwright
2001: Drafted Kenny Baugh, P (11th overall)
Could've Had: Casey Kotchman-1B, Bobby Crosby-SS, Jeremy Bonderman-P
2002: Drafted Scott Moore, SS (8th overall)
Could've Had: Jeremy Hermida-OF, Khalil Greene-SS, Scott Kazmir-P, Nick Swisher-OF, Jeremy Guthrie-P, Matt Cain-P, Jeff Francour-OF
2003: Drafted Kyle Sleeth, P (3rd overall)
Could've Had: Nick Markakis-OF, Chad Cordero-P, Carlos Quentin-OF
2004: Drafted Justin Verlander, P (2nd overall)
Could've Had: Jered Weaver-P, Phil Hughes-P
2005: Drafted Cameron Maybin, OF (10th overall)
Could've Had: Jay Bruce-OF, Jacoby Ellsbury-OF
2006: Drafted Andrew Miller, P (6th overall)
Could've Had: Tim Lincecum-P, Ian Kennedy-P
2007: Drafted Rick Procello, P (27th overall)
Could've Had: ---
Observations? We sucked before Dave Dombrowski got here. Do you see how many top-10 picks we had for years in a row??? And not one of those guys panned out or helped our organization in any way. And then Dombrowski comes in and gets Verlander, Maybin, and Miller. Luck? A little, but obviously that guy has talent at what he does and deserves all the credit in the world for what he's done in Detroit.
Okay, so all that said, what could our team look like right now had we drafted knowing what we know now? Here's how I'd do it:
C- Ivan Rodriguez (free agent)
1B- Lance Berkman
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Carlos Guillen (free agent)
3B- Brandon Inge
OF- Nick Markakis
OF- Curtis Granderson
OF- Jay Bruce
DH- Magglio Ordonez (free agent)
P- C.C. Sabathia
P- Justin Verlander
P- Scott Kazmir
P- Ben Sheets
P- Tim Lincecum
While the line-up is stellar (a perfect blend of power, speed, and defense), it's the rotation that is out of this world. Are you kidding me? We had the possibility of having five aces! Five!!! And we still could have drafted Jeremy Bonderman! Amazing. Would have been fun to see.
Draft well, Tigers.
~Mikey D
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9 comments:
The reason why they are so hit and miss is because they are drafted so early in their development process. Plus, teams are going ape shit over HS players these days and it is hard to judge them at that level of competition. I do agree that quality front office staff has helped them develop players better. I disagree that team would be awesome. Our CURRENT team is awesome on paper. Dontrelle Willis, Kenny Rogers, Verlander, and Bonderman are our starters... and they are all sucking.
I disagree.
While on paper our team was supposed to be "awesome", nobody would can argue that Dontrelle is an ace, that Kenny is an ace, that Bonderman is an ace, or that Robertson is an ace.
EVERYBODY can agree that Sabathia, Kazmir, Lincecum, and Sheets are top of the line aces hands down. The rotation they could have had would have been 10 times as strong as our current one...on paper.
Let me start by saying, I never said Robertson is an ace. The only thing I've said about Robertson before is that they need to cut him loose and he's dragging everyone down.
I was all set to discredit your argument by claiming you are only considering this year's stats. My point was that if you consider their career performance, they would be on a more even level. I was wrong, so here are the stats, organized by ERA.
Let's compare:
This year - ERA, record
Scott Kazmir 1.22, 5-1
Tim Lincecum 2.23, 7-1
Ben Sheets 2.71, 6-1
Jeremy Bonderman 4.29, 3-4
Dontrelle Willis 4.50, 0-0
CC Sabathia 4.72, 3-7
Justin Verlander 5.16, 2-8
Kenny Rogers 5.54, 4-4
Career ERA, Win Pct
Tim Lincecum 3.39, .7 (only 20 decisions)
Scott Kazmir 3.5, .571
Ben Sheets 3.76, .513
Dontrelle Willis 3.79, .557
CC Sabathia 3.87, .595
Justin Verlander 3.97, .597
Kenny Rogers 4.22, .593
Jeremy Bonderman 4.74, .472
Since that didn't work, here are links to articles, written various respected sources, that call each one of them an ace.
Dontrelle Willis
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2913492
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2882059
Justin Verlander
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3371330
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3286731
Kenny Rogers
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2911909
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2906177
Jeremy Bonderman - called the "nominal ace" and "co-staff ace"
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=keri/070806
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2006/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2608002&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fplayoffs2006%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dlaw_keith%26id%3d2608002
If you want my real opinion, by the way, here it is:
Willis was an ace and easily could regain that status. Verlander was on the way to being the ace, but has declined this season. Rogers was an ace for a few years, but isn't anymore. Bonderman was not, is not, and won't be an ace.
I'm not sure what all the articles have to do with the arguement. If someone wrote an article about me and said I was as smart as a rocket scientist, it wouldn't mean I was a actually as smart as a rocket scientist.
The facts are this: Dontrelle, with the exception of 1 year, was never the ace of the Marlins. Rogers, always solid, has never had ace stuff. Bonderman and Verlander have the potential, but have never lived up to it. Robertson, while I didn't mean to say you called him an ace, will never be one.
Aces are players teams build rotations around. The Devil Rays, Giants, Brewers, and Indians have built their pitching staffs around those guys. Why do you think they've never been free agents? Why are they locked up to long term deals? Why are they "untouchable" in trade talks? I mean even the lowly Giants and Devil Rays (once upon a time) wouldn't even consider trading those guys for more young talent.
So from the facts that you gave, it's pretty clear the Tigers pitchers aren't aces (yet, or now), while the other guys are... so they would look better in the rotation.
My point was to respond to "nobody would can argue that Dontrelle is an ace, that Kenny is an ace, that Bonderman is an ace..."
Someone did argue that they are an ace.
But nobody argued it! They just said that they were!
By saying "Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander" they are claiming he is an ace.
Kevin is long overdue for stepping in on this one.
I think as Kevin has proved multiple times, one could argue anything. But in this case, you're supposing that the writers of the articles will be able to have valid arguements for there words, and I don't see it.
Just because someone states an opinion or what they think is a fact doesn't necessarily mean they are arguing it, or that they can argue it.
Again, back to my example. "I'm as smart as a rocket scientist." Just because I said it doesn't mean I could back it up with evidence or facts.
You want to say the writers are arguing, but I don't think they are. Where is their evidence, their reasoning, their justifications for saying what they did?
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