Mikey D

Before you pick your bracket this year, here are some thoughts that I wrote down after last year's NCAA tournament (yes, I save my thoughts and brackets every year...nerd alert!).

1. Tournament experience matters.
In the 2008 tournament, North Carolina, Louisville, Kansas, Xavier, Michigan State, Tennessee, Villanova, Wisconsin, Memphis, Texas, UCLA, Western Kentucky, and West Virginia all reached the sweet sixteen, and in 2009 all returned to the NCAA tournament. Of those thirteen teams, eleven won their opening game (85%). And of those remaining eleven, seven made it to the sweet sixteen. Basically half the field repeated as sweet 16 participants! And as you know, the Final Four was made up of three out of those teams.

Teams that fit this year: Louisville, Kansas, Michigan State, Purdue, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Xavier Villanova, Duke, Gonzaga, Syracure

2. None of last year's Final Four teams were conference tournament winners.
The selection committee might put an emphasis on conference tournament performances (where's our fruit basket, Minnesota?), but they are not a good indicator of future success in the Big Dance. And although in 2008 conference tourny winners had more success, the point is to not get too wrapped up with who won what. Here's a list of last year's major conference tournament winners and their tournament finish:
-Big East: Louisville (Elite Eight)
-Big Ten: Purdue (Sweet Sixteen)
-Big 12: Missouri (Elite Eight)
-Pac 10: USC (2nd Round)
-ACC: Duke (Sweet 16)
-SEC Mississippi St. (1st Round)

3. Make sure your Final Four pick has a lightning quick guard.
What do Kalin Lucas, Ty Lawson, Scottie Reynolds, and AJ Price/Kemba Walker all have in common? Three things: They are super-quick guards, they can penetrate a defense, and all four led their team to a Final Four last year. Coincidence? I don't think so...

4. Don't get too crazy.
When picking the perfect bracket, it's hard to keep the thoughts of George Mason from creeping in as we push some unknown 13-seed to the Elite Eight. But do your best to supress your urges to send Cinderella anywhere but packing, as the last two years have been mostly chalk. Of the sixteen Elite Eight teams the past two years, 15 out of the 16 have been a three seed or better (Davidson, a ten, was the only non-conformist). So when you look at your final bracket, and it looks a little boring, that's okay.

5. Do not pick "cold" teams.
This may go without saying, but the selection committee goes off an entire season of work, and teams get seeded based off that body of work. Don't get too caught up in the seeds of the middle of the pack teams. But pay attention to the teams that stumbled towards the finish line...they are prime for an upset. Last year's victims were Wake Forest, West Virginia, BYU, and Clemson.

~Mikey D