Mikey D

As a math dork, this is what I like to do in my free time.

The last I had checked, UConn is a 4-point favorite over MSU this coming Saturday. That means the Vegas odds-makers are giving UConn a slight-edge (comparatively, UNC is an 8.5 point favorite over Nova...a prohibitive favorite).

That got me thinking about what I thought MSU's chances are for Saturday. How confident would I be in MSU? What kind of chances would I give them to win?

First, let's start from the beginning with the confidence I had in MSU winning each game up until now. These are the probabilities I gave MSU for winning against each opponent before their games:

Robert Morris: 49/50 (98% chance of winning)
USC: 3/5 (60% chance of winning)
Kansas: 2/3 (67% chance of winning)
Louisville: 1/5 (20% chance of winning)

Yes, the USC game made me more nervous than Kansas. I guess since we had already beaten Kansas once I figured we could do it again, and USC was red-hot. Whatever. Anyway, if I take all of those probabilities of my confidence in MSU and determine MSU's chances of just making the Final Four, I personally only gave them an 8% chance...which sounds awful. I did, however, pick MSU to make the Final Four (and win it all), so in a way I deserve credit for choosing them despite the 8% chance I gave them.

Now I don't think the chances I gave MSU to win each game would be much different from other peoples. People might have had MSU a little higher against USC, or a little lower against Kansas, but all in all, I'd say the chances I gave them would be pretty much on par with the rest of the country (except Kevin's, who would obviously give MSU a 100% chance of winning every single game).

All that said, this makes MSU's run to the Final Four even more remarkable. If before the tournament someone said MSU would have an 8% chance of making the Final Four, you wouldn't be feeling too confident about their chances. It's like choosing a number between 1-10...and getting it right on. I don't know, it just makes me appreciate the run that this team is on just a little bit more.

So going forward, what would be MSU's chances this weekend of winning the whole thing? I'm going to assume that UNC beats Nova for this.

Connecticut: 1/3 (33% chance of winning)
North Carolina: 1/8 (12.5% chance of winning)

So I am giving Michigan State a 4% chance of cutting down the nets on Monday night. Hey, UConn and North Carolina??? That's a tall order. But you never know. Again, I picked MSU before the season and in my bracket, and if anybody can get us to the promised land, it's Mr. Izzo.

To wrap up my fun with probabilities, if I total up all of MSU's chances, from the beginning of the tourney to the end, I am giving Michigan State .32% chance of winning the National Championship. Less than a percent! Less than half a percent! But we will do it.

Bring it. Hahooot! Hahoot!

~Mikey D