Mikey D

Do you know how I know MSU will beat Purdue tomorrow? No, not because of the revenge factor (although that would be nice). Not because of the home court advantage, either (doesn't hurt though). And no, it isn't because we are a vastly superior team (which in my biased opinion we totally are). It is because I, the great prognosticator, predicted MSU to finish a little something like this:

2008-2009 Michigan State Spartans:
Record: 25-5 (#2 seed in the NCAA Tournament)
Losses: North Carolina, Texas, @Iowa, @Illinois, @Purdue
Big 10 Record: 15-3 (1st Place)
Big 10 Tournament Champs
National Champions

We are sitting at a lovely 24-5, with a 14-3 record in the Big Ten, and according to our "Bracketology" seeding, we are a number two seed. Come on now, for a preseason prediction, that's pretty darn good. Yes I predicted some of our losses wrong, but still, not too shabby. So in order for my prediction to hold true, we will beat Purdue tomorrow. Which we will.

Switching gears, I began preparing filling out my bracket for this year's tournament about one year ago- during last year's tournament. I am obsessed with the tournament, and during last year's I began to take some notes on some trends that I noticed. Today I busted out my one-year old notes, just to start to get a feel for some of the teams I should have an eye on.

Note #1: Guards are better than bigs. When two teams are matched up, and one has strong guard play, while the other has excellent big men, go with the team with the guards. Guards beat bigs (see Stephon Curry, Western Kentucky, etc.). Of course if a team has strong guard play and big men, well, go with that team. But if I'm looking at teams like Oklahoma or UConn who are dominate inside but are lacking a little outside, and they get paired with some teams that can shoot from outside, don't be surprised if they are sent packing early.

Note #2: When deciding on which mid-major to choose for an upset, go with the one that has a "superstar". Obviously, Davidson was that team last year. But during the tournament analysis you'll hear experts talk about mid-majors and when they do, listen for them to mention a certain player that carries the load for that team. Go with that mid-major over another mid-major that doesn't have that true go-to guy. Like St. Mary's has Patty Mills. Mid-major with a go-to guy.

Note #3: Big East, Big Ten, and SEC flamed out after first two rounds last year. You hear all the hype about the Big East conference, and it is the deepest. Last year was no different, and despite all the teams that made it, only Louisville made it past the sweet sixteen to the Elite Eight. For a conference that was supposedly top-notch, that was a poor showing. Honestly, I don't see much difference from this year to the last. Same teams basically, same hype. All are beatable. So when you hear the talk about the Big East getting 3 number one seeds, don't buy into the superiority. It's been a very mediocre year for college basketball's elite. The Big Ten and SEC are also down again this year, so don't push too many teams that far. Except for MSU, of course (and no, I'm not talking about Mississippi St.).

Note #4: When you're picking Elite 8, Final 4, and Championship rounds, cool your jets on upset picks. When teams get this far, there's not much of an upset factor. Teams are good, and they're ready to play. When picking, go with the teams that are the most complete. Good coaching, good guards, and good bigs. Ride those teams to the promise land, not your instinct pick "I think if they play out of their minds they can win!" type team.

Note #5: Let Grace pick the first two rounds, then me after. Okay, this note is more for me than you. Grace owned me last year in bracket picking...for two rounds. Instead of over-thinking and over-analyzing, I should just let Grace choose and watch the wins pile up. Now that's probably the smartest thing I've said yet.

There ya go. Take my notes for what they're worth.

And go State!

~Mikey D