Mikey D

Not that this matters much to anyone but me, but I'm deciding between two guys for my number two pick: Adrian Peterson and Marion Barber. If the draft were today, it'd be Marion Barber.

I've wrestled with this a lot in my mind, but the only thing that's really holding me back from making Marion Barber the pick are the so called "experts" who have him a lot lower on their boards (low first-early 2nd...not around when I pick again).

Here are Marion Barber's numbers as a "back-up" (I use the quotations because he had more carries than Julius Jones, despite rarely starting):
985 rush yards, 10 rushing TDs, 44 receptions, 282 yards, 2 receiving TDs

Not bad. More things I like about Barber:
~Gets all the goal line carries.
~Never been injured. Knock on wood.
~He's used as a receiver. AP is not.
~In a high powered offense, like Addai.
~His offensive coordinator loves him. That can't be a bad thing.
~He's young. He's not approaching the death years for a RB (30).
~Has big play capability.
~Runs behind 3 Pro-Bowl offensive linemen.

Like I said, my only problem is nobody, and I mean nobody, in their right mind is taking him above guys like AP, Joseph Addai, and Brian Westbrook. But the more I over think things =), the more I feel like he's going to be a top-5 running back. I mean, Westbrook and Peterson weren't considered top 5 backs last year, and they finished 2-3 behind LT. And Westbrook was drafted where Barber is currently going!

So the question going forward is do I go with my gut, or do I go with the safest picks, the ones nobody can really question. I usually do the latter...but perhaps this is the year I listen to that gut a little bit more.

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Alright, let me try and make a few predictions:

1) Joseph Addai will be a fantasy disappointment.
I know, Indy backs are like gold. And gold is still pretty valuable, last time I checked. But I can't help but be nervous. I've seen Addai play a few times, and it seems each and every time he takes a hard hit he's out of the game for a few series. I feel like he's been lucky for his first two years, and that this may be the year he misses a few games due to injury. I also don't like that Indy brought back Rhodes and drafted Hart (who, if Addai gets hurt, will be money as a fantasy back. A prediction inside a prediction. He runs fucking hard). Those backs are going to take carries away from Addai. A final reason Addai worries me is that he wore down towards the end last year, and didn't come through during the fantasy playoffs. I need my back to perform in weeks 15 and 16, not 1 and 2 (although that's nice). Will he be a top-10 back? Yeah, probably, barring major injury. But a top-5...I don't think so this year.

2) This will be the last year of the LT reign.
Okay, you know I'm high on Barber. Peterson has already broken through. McFadden seems like he's ready to go in Oakland. There's a shift coming, and it's moving away from the LJs, Rudis, and soon to be LT. He's getting near that magical age of 30, which is never good. Couple that with being the workhorse back for a team for 7 years (7!?!?) and those carries will start to take a toll. I still think he has one good year left in him, but that good year might only be 1300 yards, 350 receiving, and 13 TDs. That's bringing him down to earth, where the rest of the elite backs are. But after that? Well, he may not ever post those number 1 back numbers again.

3) Tom Brady will throw 30+ TDs...but closer to 30 than 40.
Look, he's not going to throw 50 TDs again. "Well it could happen!". No, it won't. History says it won't, and defensive coordinators won't let it. One year later, I would put my money on 30+, but less than 40. The Patriots have already said they're going to run more, and with defenses scheming to stop Brady, who can blame them with capable backs like Maroney, Faulk, Morris, and Jordan? The thing that also worries me is that Brady is hurt right now. He's off on the wrong foot (I know, I crack me up too). While the preseason isn't that important, he still has yet to take a snap in a game. This might just be me, but I can see this being one of those injuries that lingers throughout the year. If so, why would the Patriots even consider throwing as much as they did last year? Doesn't make sense. They will run the ball, protect Brady, and use Moss and the passing game as a decoy.

4) Jason Witten and Antonio Gates were 1-2 in TE scoring last year (in most scoring formats). They will not be 1-2 this year.
The thing that worries me about Witten is that he's never been much of a scoring threat throughout his career. His 7 TDs last year were a career high, and there were plenty of other tight ends that had more TDs than him. He's always good for the yardage, which is nice, but can you bank on him for the TDs? Gates' foot is worrisome to me, and like Brady, I think it's going to be a nagging injury. It bothered him all last year, and if he came into camp this year fully healed, I wouldn't worry...but he's still hurt. He's not better. With this being the deepest TE group in years, there are plenty of other guys that could (and I think will) step up and have just as good and even better seasons than Witten and Gates.

5) The only rookies worth drafting are Darren McFadden and Dustin Keller.
Love me some Brett Favre! Keller is already being used as weapon at tight end by the Jets, and Brett loves his tight ends. I'm not saying he'll post top-TE numbers, but he'll be better than most. Think Donald Lee. He might be a great bye week filler or injury replacement to pick up late in the draft. Darren McFadden speaks for himself. Of course if injuries hit, guys like Mendenhall are worth picking up. But if everything stays as is, there are only two worthwhile rooks.

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Just a few more days!!! Can't wait. Always a good time.

~Mikey D