Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Draft Recap 2011

Let's start with the best picks for each round.

Rd 1: Adrian Peterson (Kevin, "W-A-F-Y")- I think this was the right move. It was probably really tempting to look at Vick, or maybe even one of those speedy backs in Rice or Charles, but with AP, you know what you're getting. Kevin's got 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs to build his team around.

Rd 2: Andre Johnson (Amber, "1st and Goal")- Andre Johnson was the #6 overall player, and for most, the #1 overall wideout. That's good value getting him at the #11 spot. I'm sure autodraft was surprised he was still there!

Rd 3: Philip Rivers (Adam, "300 Spartans")- I would have done a cartwheel in my office if that was me making that pick. I think Rivers is going to have a career year, and his schedule appears very fantasy friendly. Amazing he lasted as long as he did. Now throw it to Gates a lot...

Rd 4: Peyton Hillis (Mike, "The WhIZ Kids")- I'm expecting some shit for this one, but hear me out. First, Hillis was the #3 overall back last year- and went in the 4th round. That's exceptional value. That said, I would not have taken him in the first three rounds, mainly due to his finish last season. But even when I look at the finish, the man still averaged 80 total yards a game- it's not like he ran the ball 20 times for 42 yards. He's the goal line back for an improved Cleveland team with a solid o-line, so as a #2 RB, I feel I can get the same production as some of the #2 RBs taken in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. It's all about value.

RD 5: LeGarrette Blount (Grace, "brianwilsonisaDOUCHE")- It's the 5th round, and you need a RB. Sitting on the board is a RB that will get 250+ carries on an up-and-coming team that does not have one of those running back by committee messes. What a blessing! I'm not going to sit here and say Blount is otherworldly as a runner, but you get that many touches, you'll put up a 1,000 yards and maybe double-digit TDs by year's end (see: Rashard Mendenhall, 2010).

RD 6: Austin Collie (Adam, "300 Spartans")- Depending on your personal view of Collie, he's either a great pick or a complete reach because of his health issues. Here's what I know: When this guy is on, he's a top-10 receiver in the league. Peyton loves him, and I love that. Even if he only plays 8 games, give me 8 games of top production, and then I'll take my chances with the waiver wire. Adam, I hate you because I was targeting him with my 7th round pick.

RD 7: Jahvid Best (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- I almost left this round blank. There isn't really a pick that stands out, but Mark did nab a starting running back on a potentially explosive offense. Of course he's a huge injury risk, and isn't really an in-between the tackles runner, but the upside is that he's Jamaal Charles-lite. At the very least Best will catch a lot of passes out of the backfield, which will make up for his YPC average.

RD 8: Tim Hightower (Quinten, "Rage...RIGHT NOW")- A starting running back in the 8th round who has had a monster preseason, will get all the goal line duties, and is an excellent receiver? How is this possible??? Oh, wait, FOUR people chose defenses in the 8th round. Four!!! I just don't understand.

RD 9: Reggie Bush (Quinten, "Rage...RIGHT NOW")- Notice the RB trend? Reggie has just recently been named the starter in Miami, as the team is not enamored with the rookie Daniel Thomas. So if Reggie stays healthy, he's looking at 200+ touches. He'll never be an elite runner, but 1000+ yards and 5+ touchdowns is well within reach. Not a bad backup.

RD 10: DeAngelo Williams (Amber, "1st and Goal")- The #35 overall player on Yahoo!'s board, Williams dropped like a rock. Cam Newton doesn't inspire much confidence to lead the Panthers to respectability (yet), but DeAngelo just got his new deal and is out to prove he's worth it. And while Cam grows, they will give Williams the ball. What he does with them...well, that's the question. Personally, I'm not a believer, but in the 10th round, he's totally worth a flier.

RD 11: Mike Sims-Walker (Adam, "300 Spartans")- The Rams don't really have a tall deep threat. In the redzone, Sims-Walker will get the looks. With a rising QB, he could quickly become one of Bradford's favorite targets. I view Sims-Walker as the Marques Colston of that offense, with Danny Amendola as the Lance Moore. Depending on health, he could quickly become an every week starter.

RD 12: Willis McGahee (Mike, "The WhIZ Kids")- This was not a very sexy pick, but one thing the preseason has shown is that the Broncos are putting McGahee in the game as soon as they get into the redzone. And truth be told, I don't think the Broncos will be that bad this year. They are fairly competent on offense, so I think they will move the ball decently and will probably be involved in a couple shootouts. That means points. And if that's the case, I want the guy pounding it in at the goal line. I could easily see McGahee with 600-700 yards and 10 TDs. That would be about 120 fantasy points, which would have put him 13th last year in RB scoring- right between Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.

RD 13: Marcedes Lewis (Adam, "300 Spartans")- Um, how many teams get BACKUP tight ends that had over 700 yards receiving and 10 TDs? I know that Jacksonville could be scary bad this year, but he's their only legit receiving redzone target now that Sims-Walker has moved on. Garrard already has a rapport with him, so he's most definitely going to look his way when it matters.

RD 14: Braylon Edwards (Stacey, "Godzilla Gorillas")- Edwards is a total flake, but he's the #1 guy in San Francisco on a 1-year contract looking to prove he's a legit NFL receiver. The only downside is that he's got Alex Smith throwing him the ball, so you've got to temper expectations. Still, 800 yards and 6 TDs isn't out of the question. For a bye week fill-in? Sure, why not?

RD 15: Javon Ringer (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- Smart, smart, smart. I was curious going into the draft who was going to take Chris Johnson (I was going to at #7 if he was still there), and Mark grabbed him at #6. With his holdout, however, grabbing someone like Ringer to cover yourself the couple weeks (or more) he might be out was a solid move. The Titans have a couple softies to open their season (Jacksonville week one), so why not roll Ringer out there for probably 80 yards and a TD? I don't expect Ringer to last on Mark's roster, but it's a good short term pick-up.

And now onto the "reaches" of the draft...aka, Brian drafted who?

RD 1: Roddy White (Adam, "300 Spartans")- Let's be real, there aren't many true reaches in Round 1. This is only a reach due to hindsight. Had Adam known that Mark and I were going to go running back, and knowing the mini-run on QBs that was to occur at the start of Round 2, Adam could have had Roddy with his 2nd round pick. Hey, do it all over again Adam probably still takes Roddy, but it's those little things that always bother me in the end ("I could have had that guy a whole round later!!!").

RD 2: Mark Ingram (Brian, "Wicked Weasels")- Ah, autodraft. Let's say the Saints continue their high-octane offense, and Pierre Thomas gets hurt...and also Chris Ivory...well then Brian's pick is starting to look pretty good! Sadly, he could have gotten him at least 4-5 rounds later.

RD 3: Wes Welker (Brian, "Wicked Weasels")- Autodraft. But did anyone else notice that Brian's autodraft is not too far off from his actual draft craziness every year?

RD 4: Peyton Manning (Kevin, "W-A-F-Y")- I understand he was there, but you had Drew Brees! I think, with a 4th round pick, you're still looking for an impact player that fills a roster need. So unless Brees gets hurt, or you trade Manning (quite a possibility once he's back and healthy- I'll probably need a QB once Vick gets broken!), then Manning is merely regulated to the bench.

RD 5: Ryan Grant (Stacey, "Godzilla Gorillas")- A complete time share in Green Bay with Starks in an offense that is 100% pass first. Couple that with the fact he's coming off a pretty brutal injury, and I worry. A lot of the RBs taken after Grant seemed like safer bets, in my opinion.

RD 6: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Grace, "brianwilsonisaDOUCHE")- "I want the law firm!" As strangely hot as it was that she knew that he was the "Law Firm", she definitely shouldn't have taken him in Round 6. Belichick is not a running back friendly coach, and the fact the Patriots drafted two RBs this year makes me uber-worried Green-Ellis is going to be in the mother of all running back platoons.

RD 7: Stephen Gostkowski (Brian, "Wicked Weasels")- Autodraft. Again.

RD 8: Malcom Floyd (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- I like Floyd, but not Round 8 like. Maybe round 10? He's clearly 3rd fiddle behind Jackson and Gates, so he's not going to duplicate the season he had last year when Jackson and Gates were both out (holdout and injury).

RD 9: The Kickers (Amber and Scott)- You don't show up for the draft, you get kickers in the 9th round. It's like your punishment.

RD 10: Jordy Nelson (Quinten, "Rage...RIGHT NOW")- This is more personal preference, but I liked Mike Sims-Walker, who went a round later, more than Jordy. It's the same type of deal with Malcom Floyd- there are too many mouths to feed in Green Bay. If you start him, you're crossing your fingers and hoping you rolled the dice for the right week for a score.

RD 11: Detroit Defense (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- I'm totally on the Detroit bandwagon, but the Detroit defense in Round 11??? My guess is that they'd still be there Round 15. Show me on the field when it counts before I buy. The secondary and linebackers are still sub-par.

RD 12: Hines Ward (Stacey, "Godzilla Gorillas")- How much do I not like Hines Ward? Enough where I think a kicker and Roy Williams were better picks. If last year was any indication, Hines is close to done. Couple with that with the emergence of Wallace, Brown, and Sanders, and it's just not looking good for Hines.

RD 13-15: None- Seriously, at this point, tell me which one of those guys was a bad pick?

I want to talk a little more about the draft and my favorite players for the upcoming season, but I'll save that for another post.

Curious your thoughts on the draft.

~Mikey D

6 comments:

Kevin said...

I feel like I need to defend my Manning pick. I was looking to go WR/RB in rounds 4/5, but the WR's I had targeted were gone a few picks earlier. (DeSean Jackson and Reggie Wayne) I didn't feel like I could get good value out of any of the remaining WR's.

I feel like I will get tons of value out of Manning. Either out of a trade, or using him as the starter and trading Brees.

I think Manning will be a top level QB this year. I just couldn't pass him up for a mediocre #2 WR like Dez Bryant or Dwayne Bowe.

Mikey D said...

I understand your reasons. And I certainly have no argument for Bowe and Manning being on the same level. If you drafted Manning with the intention of trading him (or Brees), then it makes sense. Question is, when's the trade going down?

I say that because I view Bowe and Dez as better than Harvin, the 3rd WR you have starting. The WRs you are currently starting aren't as strong as they could have been, which is my reasoning for calling Manning a reach.

At the very least you have a great trading piece moving forward to address any potential RB or WR needs. That's something not a lot of teams can say.

Adam said...

You like Jahvid Best over Pittsburgh's D? Do you remember how many points they racked up last season? People won weeks last year just because of Pittsburgh's D. This season they get:
SEA
TEN
JAX
@ CIN
CIN
CLE
@SF
@CLE
When I win the title, you will know why.

I'm siding with Mike on the Peyton Manning debate. You're set @ QB already and could have gotten Matt Ryan 2 rounds later. Rather than Jeremy Maclin as the #2 WR you could have had Brandon Lloyd, Dez Bryant, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson, Mario Manningham, or Austin Collie.

You're wrong on round 5. By far the worst pick was the autodraft of 85. It's not going to work the way Randy Moss did.

Mikey D said...

Time to counter!

First, you are banking on the Pittsburgh defense being awesome like last year. Probably a good bet, but remember the year after the Chicago defense was the best and they were going in the 5th round? Yeah, they weren't so hot. Point is, counting on defenses is risky proposition.

Secondly, we are different fantasy players. I will never ever draft a fantasy defense or kicker before the 14th or 15th rounds. I always have believed in playing the matchups. Case in point: Pittsburgh is projected to get 9 fantasy points Week 1, Cleveland (my defense for the week) is projected for 14.

And if you win the title, I will probably not say it was because of the Pittsburgh defense. You do have Rivers, White, MJD, etc. I know defenses win championships, but come on...the Pittsburgh defense isn't all-time great this year, is it?

I love debating this stuff =). I'm glad fantasy is back now! Good times.

Grace, Money Smart Fashion said...

whaaaaaat? The law firm was a reach? No way man. I don't care what all your facts and figures say, he's going to score like a million touchdowns this season. :)

Mikey D said...

Haha, Adam, read the "what's in my wallet" article on our fantasy page by scott pia...something or other. He shares my viewpoint.

Sorry babycake, but its true. A million touchowns? Your projections are a reach too :).