Let's start with the best picks for each round.
Rd 1: Adrian Peterson (Kevin, "W-A-F-Y")- I think this was the right move. It was probably really tempting to look at Vick, or maybe even one of those speedy backs in Rice or Charles, but with AP, you know what you're getting. Kevin's got 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs to build his team around.
Rd 2: Andre Johnson (Amber, "1st and Goal")- Andre Johnson was the #6 overall player, and for most, the #1 overall wideout. That's good value getting him at the #11 spot. I'm sure autodraft was surprised he was still there!
Rd 3: Philip Rivers (Adam, "300 Spartans")- I would have done a cartwheel in my office if that was me making that pick. I think Rivers is going to have a career year, and his schedule appears very fantasy friendly. Amazing he lasted as long as he did. Now throw it to Gates a lot...
Rd 4: Peyton Hillis (Mike, "The WhIZ Kids")- I'm expecting some shit for this one, but hear me out. First, Hillis was the #3 overall back last year- and went in the 4th round. That's exceptional value. That said, I would not have taken him in the first three rounds, mainly due to his finish last season. But even when I look at the finish, the man still averaged 80 total yards a game- it's not like he ran the ball 20 times for 42 yards. He's the goal line back for an improved Cleveland team with a solid o-line, so as a #2 RB, I feel I can get the same production as some of the #2 RBs taken in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. It's all about value.
RD 5: LeGarrette Blount (Grace, "brianwilsonisaDOUCHE")- It's the 5th round, and you need a RB. Sitting on the board is a RB that will get 250+ carries on an up-and-coming team that does not have one of those running back by committee messes. What a blessing! I'm not going to sit here and say Blount is otherworldly as a runner, but you get that many touches, you'll put up a 1,000 yards and maybe double-digit TDs by year's end (see: Rashard Mendenhall, 2010).
RD 6: Austin Collie (Adam, "300 Spartans")- Depending on your personal view of Collie, he's either a great pick or a complete reach because of his health issues. Here's what I know: When this guy is on, he's a top-10 receiver in the league. Peyton loves him, and I love that. Even if he only plays 8 games, give me 8 games of top production, and then I'll take my chances with the waiver wire. Adam, I hate you because I was targeting him with my 7th round pick.
RD 7: Jahvid Best (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- I almost left this round blank. There isn't really a pick that stands out, but Mark did nab a starting running back on a potentially explosive offense. Of course he's a huge injury risk, and isn't really an in-between the tackles runner, but the upside is that he's Jamaal Charles-lite. At the very least Best will catch a lot of passes out of the backfield, which will make up for his YPC average.
RD 8: Tim Hightower (Quinten, "Rage...RIGHT NOW")- A starting running back in the 8th round who has had a monster preseason, will get all the goal line duties, and is an excellent receiver? How is this possible??? Oh, wait, FOUR people chose defenses in the 8th round. Four!!! I just don't understand.
RD 9: Reggie Bush (Quinten, "Rage...RIGHT NOW")- Notice the RB trend? Reggie has just recently been named the starter in Miami, as the team is not enamored with the rookie Daniel Thomas. So if Reggie stays healthy, he's looking at 200+ touches. He'll never be an elite runner, but 1000+ yards and 5+ touchdowns is well within reach. Not a bad backup.
RD 10: DeAngelo Williams (Amber, "1st and Goal")- The #35 overall player on Yahoo!'s board, Williams dropped like a rock. Cam Newton doesn't inspire much confidence to lead the Panthers to respectability (yet), but DeAngelo just got his new deal and is out to prove he's worth it. And while Cam grows, they will give Williams the ball. What he does with them...well, that's the question. Personally, I'm not a believer, but in the 10th round, he's totally worth a flier.
RD 11: Mike Sims-Walker (Adam, "300 Spartans")- The Rams don't really have a tall deep threat. In the redzone, Sims-Walker will get the looks. With a rising QB, he could quickly become one of Bradford's favorite targets. I view Sims-Walker as the Marques Colston of that offense, with Danny Amendola as the Lance Moore. Depending on health, he could quickly become an every week starter.
RD 12: Willis McGahee (Mike, "The WhIZ Kids")- This was not a very sexy pick, but one thing the preseason has shown is that the Broncos are putting McGahee in the game as soon as they get into the redzone. And truth be told, I don't think the Broncos will be that bad this year. They are fairly competent on offense, so I think they will move the ball decently and will probably be involved in a couple shootouts. That means points. And if that's the case, I want the guy pounding it in at the goal line. I could easily see McGahee with 600-700 yards and 10 TDs. That would be about 120 fantasy points, which would have put him 13th last year in RB scoring- right between Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.
RD 13: Marcedes Lewis (Adam, "300 Spartans")- Um, how many teams get BACKUP tight ends that had over 700 yards receiving and 10 TDs? I know that Jacksonville could be scary bad this year, but he's their only legit receiving redzone target now that Sims-Walker has moved on. Garrard already has a rapport with him, so he's most definitely going to look his way when it matters.
RD 14: Braylon Edwards (Stacey, "Godzilla Gorillas")- Edwards is a total flake, but he's the #1 guy in San Francisco on a 1-year contract looking to prove he's a legit NFL receiver. The only downside is that he's got Alex Smith throwing him the ball, so you've got to temper expectations. Still, 800 yards and 6 TDs isn't out of the question. For a bye week fill-in? Sure, why not?
RD 15: Javon Ringer (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- Smart, smart, smart. I was curious going into the draft who was going to take Chris Johnson (I was going to at #7 if he was still there), and Mark grabbed him at #6. With his holdout, however, grabbing someone like Ringer to cover yourself the couple weeks (or more) he might be out was a solid move. The Titans have a couple softies to open their season (Jacksonville week one), so why not roll Ringer out there for probably 80 yards and a TD? I don't expect Ringer to last on Mark's roster, but it's a good short term pick-up.
And now onto the "reaches" of the draft...aka, Brian drafted who?
RD 1: Roddy White (Adam, "300 Spartans")- Let's be real, there aren't many true reaches in Round 1. This is only a reach due to hindsight. Had Adam known that Mark and I were going to go running back, and knowing the mini-run on QBs that was to occur at the start of Round 2, Adam could have had Roddy with his 2nd round pick. Hey, do it all over again Adam probably still takes Roddy, but it's those little things that always bother me in the end ("I could have had that guy a whole round later!!!").
RD 2: Mark Ingram (Brian, "Wicked Weasels")- Ah, autodraft. Let's say the Saints continue their high-octane offense, and Pierre Thomas gets hurt...and also Chris Ivory...well then Brian's pick is starting to look pretty good! Sadly, he could have gotten him at least 4-5 rounds later.
RD 3: Wes Welker (Brian, "Wicked Weasels")- Autodraft. But did anyone else notice that Brian's autodraft is not too far off from his actual draft craziness every year?
RD 4: Peyton Manning (Kevin, "W-A-F-Y")- I understand he was there, but you had Drew Brees! I think, with a 4th round pick, you're still looking for an impact player that fills a roster need. So unless Brees gets hurt, or you trade Manning (quite a possibility once he's back and healthy- I'll probably need a QB once Vick gets broken!), then Manning is merely regulated to the bench.
RD 5: Ryan Grant (Stacey, "Godzilla Gorillas")- A complete time share in Green Bay with Starks in an offense that is 100% pass first. Couple that with the fact he's coming off a pretty brutal injury, and I worry. A lot of the RBs taken after Grant seemed like safer bets, in my opinion.
RD 6: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Grace, "brianwilsonisaDOUCHE")- "I want the law firm!" As strangely hot as it was that she knew that he was the "Law Firm", she definitely shouldn't have taken him in Round 6. Belichick is not a running back friendly coach, and the fact the Patriots drafted two RBs this year makes me uber-worried Green-Ellis is going to be in the mother of all running back platoons.
RD 7: Stephen Gostkowski (Brian, "Wicked Weasels")- Autodraft. Again.
RD 8: Malcom Floyd (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- I like Floyd, but not Round 8 like. Maybe round 10? He's clearly 3rd fiddle behind Jackson and Gates, so he's not going to duplicate the season he had last year when Jackson and Gates were both out (holdout and injury).
RD 9: The Kickers (Amber and Scott)- You don't show up for the draft, you get kickers in the 9th round. It's like your punishment.
RD 10: Jordy Nelson (Quinten, "Rage...RIGHT NOW")- This is more personal preference, but I liked Mike Sims-Walker, who went a round later, more than Jordy. It's the same type of deal with Malcom Floyd- there are too many mouths to feed in Green Bay. If you start him, you're crossing your fingers and hoping you rolled the dice for the right week for a score.
RD 11: Detroit Defense (Mark, "Wookie Luv")- I'm totally on the Detroit bandwagon, but the Detroit defense in Round 11??? My guess is that they'd still be there Round 15. Show me on the field when it counts before I buy. The secondary and linebackers are still sub-par.
RD 12: Hines Ward (Stacey, "Godzilla Gorillas")- How much do I not like Hines Ward? Enough where I think a kicker and Roy Williams were better picks. If last year was any indication, Hines is close to done. Couple with that with the emergence of Wallace, Brown, and Sanders, and it's just not looking good for Hines.
RD 13-15: None- Seriously, at this point, tell me which one of those guys was a bad pick?
I want to talk a little more about the draft and my favorite players for the upcoming season, but I'll save that for another post.
Curious your thoughts on the draft.
~Mikey D
As I'm sure you all remember, Adam and I both picked the Packers to make the Super Bowl on my blog last year during the NFL Picks post. Of course we both had them losing in the Super Bowl, but the fact is we had them there, which makes last year's picks a success compared to previous years. Let's see if we can get both teams in the Super Bowl right, or at least the winner of the big game correct.
NFC
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys (Wild Card)
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins
The Eagles are clearly the cream of the crop of this division. Is it just me, or is this the weakest the NFC East has been in years? Last year was pretty weak, but top to bottom, this division is not very strong. At years end if the Redskins end up finishing second, I'll only be mildly surprised. All of the teams here have flaws, just some more than others. I have yet to buy 100% into the Eagles and their "Dream Team" monicker. Usually superstar teams like this don't pan out like everyone excepts (2004 Lakers, for example). Plus, as great as Vick is, he's still and injury concern and has yet to carry a team to the promised land.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings
Lions, baby! I love what the Lions are doing on and off the field, and I think they take another step forward this year. It's already kind of unfortunate their entire draft class is hurt (especially LeShoure), but I think there's enough talent coming back we can still jump the Bears and Vikings. Not a big fan of either of those teams, especially Chicago. Last season seems like a mirage. The real Bears show themselves this year- an aging defense, a pourous offensive line, and an average QB in Cutler.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. New Orleans Saints (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers
This will be the most competitive division in football, hands down. I think every one of these teams improved themselves in some way this off season. Even the Panthers should be halfway decent, with a little health this year, and a new QB (who looked good in his first preseason game). Whichever team can win at a division opponent's place the most will take the South.
NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Seattle Seahawks
As Colin Cowherd would say, the Seattle Sea Chickens are a dumpster fire. Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst? God help them. The 49ers are the same teams as they were the past three years, and will only improve when they get a legit QB. Arizona has improved with a new QB and RB, but there's still defensive questions. Count me all-in on Bradford and the Rams. Upgrades across the board on defense and offense, a new OC in Josh McDaniels, and high expectations for sophomore Sam Bradford. Rams win the division and host a home playoff game, Bradford shines, Rams draft a big-play receiver in the 2012 draft, and Bradford becomes a top-15 fantasy QB next year. Book it.
NFC Playoffs:
Wild Card:
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (Green Bay 34, Dallas 17)
New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (St. Louis 27, New Orleans 24)
Divisional:
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (Atlanta 20, Green Bay 17)
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Philadelphia 40, St. Louis 21)
NFC Championship:
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (Atlanta 24, Philadelphia 23)
NFC Champion: Atlanta Falcons
AFC
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets (Wild Card)
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins are awful, the Bills are less awful, but still awful. This is a two team race, as usual, between the Pats and Jets. I think the Patriots improved in the off season, bringing in help at the WR, RB, and DL positions, while getting Logan Mankins signed to a long-term deal (plus, with Brady-Hoyer-Mallet, that's gotta be the most talented trio of QBs on any team in the league). The Jets...lost Cotchery, lost Edwards, lost Brad Smith, have LT another year older, and still have Shonne Greene at RB. So how did they improve? Plax? Um, sell. Patriots win this division.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card)
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
Colt McCoy looks like the real deal for the Browns, unfortunately the Ravens and Steelers still own this division. The Browns are still a year or two away from becoming a threat, and the Bengals are about five years from having a chance to be legitimate. Give me the Steelers in this division, as they bring back every starter on both sides of the ball, and most importantly, own the Ravens in recent seasons. Seems like the easiest division to predict.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Tennessee Titans
This is the year for the Texans. Peyton's starting the season a little banged up, and is clearly on the downhill of his career. Couple that with an aging Colt's roster, and now is the time for the Texans to make their move. They get Cushing back at LB, and got Joseph to shore up the CB spot. They are still dynamic on offense, with Arian Foster and Shaub, so now is the time they put it all together. Jacksonville and Tennessee are the epitomy of mediocre, and will probably score and upset or two here and there, but it's tough to seem them as legit threats to win the division or make the playoffs.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Denver Broncos
Love the Chargers this year, now that they have no expectations on them. They get Vincent Jackson back for the full season, still have Floyd and Gates, and stability at running back with Matthews and Tolbert. Oh yeah, and Philip Rivers. The defense- already solid- seems to have been upgraded as well. I think the Chiefs will slide back a bit this year, as I think a lot of their success was based on a soft schedule and catching teams by surprise. Cassell and company regress a bit this year, the Broncos stay a mess, and the Raiders- who went undefeated against AFC West teams last year- come in at #2 by default.
AFC Playoffs:
AFC Wild Card:
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pittsburgh 16, New York 13)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (Baltimore 30, Houston 27)
AFC Divisional:
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (New England 31, Baltimore 20)
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers (San Diego 24, Pittsburgh 20)
AFC Championship:
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (New England 33, San Diego 31)
AFC Champion: New England Patriots
***
Super Bowl: Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
(Atlanta Falcons 26, New England Patriots 24)
Super Bowl Champions: Atlanta Falcons
~Mikey D
