Friday, November 27, 2009

Fantasy Review

***All of this was written after Week 11. I know the fantasy season isn’t over quite yet, but we can reach some conclusions.

Top 10 Best Draft Values
1. Ray Rice (Round 13, 4th Pick-ipresstoocoolbuttons)- A top-10 pick next year. Dual threat back is 5th in fantasy points amongst RBs.
2. Deshaun Jackson (Round 8, 6th Pick- Whiskey Wednesday)- No way this guy lasts until the 8th round next year. 4th in points amongst WRs.
3. Chris Johnson (Round 2, 6th Pick- Whiskey Wednesday)- On pace for 2000 yards and the number two fantasy RB. He’d be the first pick, in my opinion, if there was a fantasy draft tomorrow.
4. Reggie Wayne (Round 4, 3rd Pick- PB’s Gunslingers)- Surprisingly the number two scoring fantasy wideout.
5. Joseph Addai (Round 7, 5th Pick- Cumming From Behind)- All he does is score TDs. 6th most fantasy points amongst RBs.
6. Vincent Jackson (Round 6, 2nd Pick- Wicked Weasels)- 5th in fantasy points amongst WRs.
7. Thomas Jones (Round 10, 8th Pick- Kevinvidious)- 9th highest scoring RB this year.
8. Donald Driver (Round 13, 3rd Pick- Whiskey Wednesday)- A top 10-WR thus far. Has taken advantage of Jennings’ no-show year.
9. Cedric Benson (Round 13, 5th Pick-Cumming From Behind) - 13th amongst RBs, and a workhorse.
10. Brent Celek (Round 14, 4th Pick- Cumming From Behind)- 2nd to last TE picked, and number 4 in scoring amongst TEs.


Top 10 Worst Draft Picks
1. Brian Westbrook (Round 2, 3rd Pick- PB’s Gunslingers)- Way overrated coming into the year. There’s a reason Philly drafted McCoy- Westbrook is past his prime.
2. Clinton Portis (Round 3, 4th Pick- ipresstoocoolbuttons)- Grace loved him at the time, but not so much right now. Career OVER.
3. Matt Forte (Round 1, 6th Pick- PB Gunslingers)- Not bad at the time, but Forte has grossly underperformed and looks just awful right now. Will be a late draft pick next year.
4. Greg Jennings (Round 4, 4th Pick- Cumming From Behind)- With Frank Gore on the board, I took my 3rd receiver of the draft. Oops…
5. Jason Witten (Round 5, 4th Pick- ipresstoocoolbuttons)- Supposedly a top-TE candidate, but has been anything but with only 1 TD all season.
6. Eddie Royal (Round 5, 7th Pick- Wicked Weasels)- Eddie, who? Never heard of him.
7. Calvin Johnson (Round 2, 5th Pick- ipresstoocoolbuttons)- Great receiver, but injuries have slowed him. Not worth a second round pick. Chris Johnson would have been a better pick.
8. LaDainian Tomlinson (Round 2, 1st Pick- Boston Massacre)- Adam will agree; a little too high for LT this year. With DeAngelo Williams, Steve Slaton, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, etc. still on the board, I’m sure Adam wishes he could have a redo.
9. Steve Slaton (Round 2, 8th Pick- Kevinvidious)- Slaton is 15th in scoring amongst RBs, but two picks later, DeAngelo Williams came off the board. Can you imagine Kevin with Adrian Peterson and DeAngelo Williams as his 1-2 RBs with Rodgers as his QB? Unstoppable.
10. Terrell Owens (Round 6, 8th Pick- Kevinvidious)- At the time seemed like a possible bargain, but with Ochocinco and Deshaun Jackson going after him, a little regretful now.

If There Was a 9th Team That Entered Our League After Our Draft, Their Roster Might Look Like This (Players That Could Have Been Picked Up Off Waivers):
QB: Brett Favre- This draft afterthought is 5th in QB scoring.
QB: Vince Young- His last four games he’s been steady and consistent.
WR: Miles Austin- 6th in WR points
WR: Mike Sims-Walker- 11th in WR points
WR: Steve Smith- 9th in WR points
RB: Ricky Williams – Amazingly, 4th in RB points
RB: Rashard Mendenhall- 17th amongst fantasy backs; lead man in Pitt
TE: Vernon Davis- Top scoring TE thus far.
K: Lawrence Tynes- 2nd highest point total amongst kickers.
DEF: New Orleans- Top scoring defense this year.

My Preseason Fantasy Predictions:

Prediction: Maurice Jones-Drew will not be a top-4 running back, as he is currently being drafted.

I was so sure that MJD would not be able to handle the workload because, well, he never has before. I was also figuring on him getting less scoring opportunities with teams loading up on him to stop the run. Well, I couldn’t have been more wrong. MJD is the real deal, and he is the top fantasy back thus far.
Prediction: Adrian Peterson will get 2,000 yards rushing.
Can I change this to Chris Johnson? AP has a 1000 after ten games, but will probably finish around 1600. What a bum.
Prediction: Aaron Rodgers will be a top-3 fantasy QB this year.
On draft day I wanted Grace to take Brees and then Rodgers with her first two picks (just out of curiosity to see how her team would do), but she was in love with Megatron (he is kind of awesome). Could you imagine, though? Not only has Rodgers been a top-3 QB, he’s been the QB in fantasy. Not only is he first in points, but he’s doing it with a dreadful offensive line and little production from Jennings. Amazing.
Prediction: Randy Moss will finish as the top fantasy wideout, and Andre Johnson will be second.
Randy Moss and Tom Terrific are quite the couple. After 12 weeks, Moss is number one in points. Andre? A pedestrian 7th amongst WRs, and about 20 points behind Larry Fitzgerald for second. Not gonna catch him.
Prediction: Pierre Thomas will be a top-10 back.
He probably would be if Mike Bell didn’t exist! He’s 15th right now, so there is time for him to crack the top-10, but can you imagine if he was healthy for the full year and got the TDs that have been vultured by Bell? New Orleans has run as much as they’ve passed this year, and Thomas could have been a superstar.
Prediction: Matt Ryan will be a better fantasy QB than Kurt Warner.
Warner is ranked 9th, Ryan is ranked 13th. I was banking on Warner’s old age, injury history, and Super Bowl hangover to hurt him a bit this year. I suppose I am right in a way, because he isn’t having as prolific a season as last year (but still good). I am disappointed with Ryan, however, as he hasn’t come up with the big fantasy days like I thought. He’s been a decent start, just not great.
Prediction: The best rookie RB will be…Donald Brown.
What the hell got into Joseph Addai? All he does is score touchdowns, making Brown irrelevant. Top rookie back thus far: Knowshon Moreno. And this has been a down year for rookie backs (compared to last year), as Moreno is currently 28th amongst fantasy backs- right behind Reggie Bush and Willis McGahee. Yeah, not that impressive.
Prediction: Marion Barber and Felix Jones will make you go, “Man, I should have drafted those guys when I had the chance”.
I knew it going into the year; the Cowboys would run a whole heck of a lot. And they’ve been primarily a run-oriented team. Unfortunately for me, Tashard Choice got thrown in the mix, Felix and Marion have been banged up, and the Cowboy’s offense as a whole has underperformed, thus rendering the Cowboys backfield a mess in fantasy land. Ah well, in theory it all made sense.
Prediction: Jay Cutler, Terrell Owens, Ronnie Brown, and Steven Jackson will not live up to their draft ranking.
Jay Cutler: Round 8, 13th QB taken. Currently 14th in scoring amongst QBs. He has more INTs than TDs, but that’s Jay Cutler. Adam got him right around where he should have been picked.
Terrell Owens: Round 6, 16th WR taken. Currently 28th in scoring amongst WRs, right behind Hakeem Nicks and Patrick Crayton. Yeah, Buffalo is a mess.
Ronnie Brown: Round 4, 14th RB taken. Currently 10th in scoring amongst RBs, but on the IR for the rest of the season. Had he stayed healthy, he would have definitely been worth his draft position. Unfortunately health has always been a knock on Brown, and he’ll probably fall past his draft ranking.
Steven Jackson: Round 3, 12th RB taken. Currently 14th in scoring amongst RBs, so all things considered Adam got him right where he should have been drafted: Late 3rd round. No way he should have been a first round pick like most experts said.
Prediction: DeAngelo Williams is the running back to own in Carolina, and he’ll be productive this year.
Duh. A lot of people were down on DeAngelo thinking that Stewart would see more carries and that Williams could not duplicate his 08’ season. Well of course his numbers aren’t as good as last year’s, but he’s still 8th in RB scoring. Not too shabby.
Prediction: Rashad Jennings will become a name you know that you never heard of before.
This goes back to my MJD prediction. Had MJD gotten hurt, Jennings would have been the man. Ah well, maybe next year.
Prediction: Ahman Green is rumored to be close to signing with St. Louis. If that happens, SJax will get hurt in Week 16 and Green will start in his place and run for 5 TDs…against Kevin’s team in the fantasy playoffs (causing him to lose the matchup).
Green is back with the Packers, which might be a good thing as Kevin has three Packers on his roster. I’m waiting for him to accidentally step on Rodgers’ foot and break it on a handoff (causing Rodgers to miss the rest of the year), or for him to mix up a route on a pass play causing him to collide with Driver, resulting in Driver breaking his collarbone. There’s still time, Ahman! Fuck Kevin over again!!! I know you still have it in you!

~Mikey D