Mikey D

"I think you are CRAZY for picking us to win the National Championship! And I thought I was drinking the kool-aid for thinking we'd beat OSU in football." ~Adam from last year's MSU basketball preseason post.

Excuse me for a second while I pat myself on the back. Last year MSU went 25-5, won the Big Ten Conference with a record of 15-3, and was a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament. And what did I predict??? That's right: 25-5, 15-3 in the conference, and a #2 seed. Pretty damn good.

Okay, so I didn't call all the games that we'd win/lose correctly, and no we didn't win the Big Ten Tournament, nor did we win our National Championship (oh so close though!). But I wasn't crazy, Adam!

So with all the success we had last year there's naturally a lot of hype on this year's team...and I'm nervous about that. Success can breed complacency, which is never a good thing, but an absolute terrible thing with a team with flaws. And we are team with flaws.

Last season's seniors are gone; a group that consisted of Travis Walton, Idong Ibok, Marquise Gray, and, most importantly, Goran Suton. I'm sure we can all agree that Ibok and Gray are easily replaceable, and Walton will be a tough one to lose with his leadership and defense, but I think you could see Lucas step into his shoes and lead this team. I feel like he wants to have that role now. But it's the loss of Suton that is going to be the most hard.

If you watched last year, you know that Suton was the glue. With the freshmen big men trying to find their way, it was Suton that was our force down low- and he was outstanding. Defensively and offensively, he was our low-post presence. And we were a different team when he wasn't on the floor.

So what team will we be this season? The team with a superb backcourt but lacking the lowpost dominance? Or will one of our bigs step up and make us a complete team? And if so, will we have the mindset and desire to drive towards a National Championship, with the focus on us, in a conference that's better?

So what's our roster looking like? From seniors to freshmen, here's a look:
MSU 2009-2010 Roster
Raymar Morgan-F (senior)
Isaiah Dahlman-G (senior)
Jon Crandell-F (senior)
Kalin Lucas-G (junior)
Chris Allen-G (junior)
Durrell Summers-G (junior)
Mike Kebler-G (junior)
Tom Herzog-C (junior)
Anthony Ianni-C (junior)
Delvon Roe-F (sophomore)
Austin Thornton-G (sophomore)
Draymond Green-F (sophomore)
Korie Lucious-G (sophomore)
Garrick Sherman-C (freshman)
Derrick Nix-C (freshman)

So here's the problem: which five do you start? Last year it was easy to peg our center position. But with two freshmen at center, and two unproven guys in Herzog and Ianni, would you risk starting one of them?

I say no. My prediction for our starting five would be the following:
PG- Kailin Lucas
SG- Durrell Summers
SF- Raymar Morgan
PF- Draymond Green
PF/C- Delvon Roe

A smaller line-up, but at the start of the season, I think that we're going to have to roll with that.

Schedule
I think the Big Ten is going to be tough this year. Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Indiana (with a top recruiting class in tow) will all be better. It's going to be a war of attrition to survive the Big Ten conference schedule, and realistically I could see the Big Ten winner having four or five losses this year. It will be that tough. Of course the national media will probably hammer the conference saying it's mediocre with us beating each other up all year, but come tournament time we shall show the world who is truly mediocre!

Big Ten Schedule
@Northwestern
Wisconsin
@Iowa
Minnesota
Illinois
Iowa
@Minnesota
@Michigan
Northwestern
@Wisconsin
@Illinois
Purdue
@Penn State
@Indiana
Ohio State
@Purdue
Penn State
Michigan

I think the beginning of the schedule favors us nicely, and with four out of our first six games at home (and one against lowly Iowa on the road), I think we'll get off to a great start in the conference. But starting with the Wisconsin game on the road, things get tough. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a losing streak going on there, with us maybe losing two or three in a row. It's a tough conference this year, I just think every team this year is going to go through a little rough spot or two.

The non-conference schedule has us playing our usual cupcakes mixed in with some powerhouses. We get Gonzaga at home this year, which would typically sound like a great game, but Gonzaga lost quite a few guys off its roster from last year, so this should be a very winnable game. The other games of note are us visiting North Carolina and Texas in December. Those will be the two measuring stick games to see where we're at thus far in the season. I do like that they are being played in December, and not November, so we have a chance to get our freshmens' feet wet and get into some sort of rhythm as a team.

The Freshmen
Last year's team needed contributions from its freshmen to have success, and it got them in a big way. All three stepped up huge. This year's team is no different. We need someone to step up and play the center position. I'm not saying they have to fill Suton's shoes, but they have to do the job admirably where teams don't consider our center position a point of weakness.

So who are the two freshman? First up is Derrick Nix. He's the most likely of the two to be the one to step-up and get the valuable minutes. From his scouting report, "Nix loves to initiate contact in the paint and his physical style of play fits perfectly with the Tom Izzo's preference to set the tone by dominating opponents physically, especially on the defense end. As he gets in better shape, Nix' size should help the Spartans impose their will on the opposition. He should have some chances to score the ball as a below-the-rim big guy and rebound because of positioning." Looks like we have a bruiser down low! I like it. I'm envisioning Nix, Roe, and Green crashing the boards all at once and leaving their opposition on the ground bloody and bruised. Of course this vision will hinge on Nix's progress and development as a player, but already Izzo has been quoted as saying, “He’s moving his feet pretty good, and I’m not disappointed with him one bit — in fact, I’m excited about him.” Even Kalin Lucas has noticed his presence. From the State News: “When he was on defense and I was on offense, I was about to go to the hole and I just saw a wide body and I had to back up,” junior guard Kalin Lucas said. “I thought, ‘I’m definitely not going in there. He’s too big.’”

Definitely good to hear. The other big man we got is named Garrick Sherman from Ohio. From his scouting evaluation: "His motor is relentless and he has the ability to dominate his area rebounding, but what is most impressive is his ability to get those huge hands on rebounds outside his immediate area on the floor. The best compliment he received in every game he played in the tournament was the frustration of his opponent. In the two games I watched him play, both games had his opponent get called for blatant pushing fouls that were obvious signs of frustration. With his low post, physical, "throw me the ball" game, he went to the foul line many times and again did his job with efficiency and knocked down the free throws." Izzo has seemed to find another big man that fits his style of basketball. It gets me excited to think what these two players can be as they grow into the MSU system. If they can be anything like the disruptive forces they sound like, I will be ecstatic.

The impact at the beginning of the year will be minimal, though. From the State News, "Izzo said he expects to start by giving Nix, junior center Tom Herzog and freshman center Garrick Sherman each two sets of about three to four minutes per half." I suppose this is much like Green and Roe were last year...slowly working themselves into the regular rotation.

Oh, and I know everyone is going to be worried about Kalin Lucas leaving at the end of this year to turn pro. Next year's recruiting class, already top-10 rated, features Keith Appling, an absolute speed demon (he spurned UNC, Memphis, Georgetown, and Syracuse to join us). We will also be adding Russell Byrd from Indiana, widely considered the best pure shooter in the nation, an absolute gunner. We'll be okay.

Prediction
National Championship. How could I not? Alright, so a lot of things have to happen for this prediction to come true. A team has to be as much lucky as good to get to the point where they're playing for a championship. But here me out on my reasoning for an MSU championship run.

First, you can only be impressed by how our team's youth played last year. Yes, Suton was a major reason we went as far as we did, but around Suton the team was carried by our freshmen and sophomores. I think the experiences they've gained are invaluable. I don't expect any of those guys to regress, I expect them to only shine brighter.

I think we'll stay healthy this year. Perhaps this is me hoping, but I think Raymar Morgan is going to end his college career fulfilling the expectations he came in with. He will be our man on a mission, and his determination and will are going to carry us through the tough parts of the season. I expect him not only to be good, but great this year. Yes, I know he's been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but he will be big, just watch.