Mikey D

Note: I wrote this post prior to our Tuesday draft, but held back on posting it for obvious reasons. I’m not making any guarantees here (like a Tigers-Cardinals World Series…who’s with me???), just some semi-baseless predictions.

Prediction: Maurice Jones-Drew will not be a top-4 running back, as he is currently being drafted.
Fantasy experts have Jones-Drew as high as number one in some rankings, and as low as number four in others. Off talent alone and the fact he’s now starting (finally) in Jacksonville, this makes sense to me. I mean, a TD machine on the ground and through the air? Sounds like a fantasy stud! But I can’t help but think back to last year when I overhyped and overvalued Marion Barber. I thought Barber was a top-5 back, playing in a great Dallas offense and finally being the one to shoulder the load- except he wasn’t able to handle the load. Sometimes these backs used to two-back time shares struggle transitioning to the feature role, which MJD showed last year at the end. Go take a look at MJD’s last three games where he started over Fred Taylor and got 20+ touches. Not good. So with Barber’s fantasy collapse fresh in my mind, I predict similar “doom” for MJD.

Prediction: Adrian Peterson will get 2,000 yards rushing.
Not total yards, rushing. It’s his personal goal, and with a decent offensive line and a relatively easy schedule (I mean, he gets the Lions twice, that’s good for at least a 1,000 yards right there), there’s a chance he could get it. But what about Brett Favre you say? He can only help AP. You’d be foolish to think anybody but AP is the centerpiece of that offense, and if Favre can help alleviate the 8-men in the box that AP routinely faces, that’s only going to help. And did you know that the Vikings were 11th in passing TDs last year? Yes, even with QBs that sucked, they still threw the ball in the endzone, and AP still got his. Same thing this year, and with less pressure on him and a mission to reach 2,000, he reaches his goal.

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers will be a top-3 fantasy QB this year.
Wow, way to go out on a limb, right? The dude was fifth last year, so that’s not much of a jump really. But when you start to make a list of the top fantasy QBs, Rodgers name rarely gets placed in the top 3. You have Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner, and then most people put Rodgers (with Rivers being the other candidate). Rodgers last year was spectacular and brings back all of his weapons, has the Brett Favre transition out of the way, has a healthy running game, and a 12-game stretch to open the season that is very fantasy friendly. Simply put, the stars are aligned for a great year. Better than a Manning, Warner, or a Rivers? Why not? Those guys will be hovering around 30 TDs, just like Rodgers was last year.

Prediction: Randy Moss will finish as the top fantasy wideout, and Andre Johnson will be second.
Randy Moss will not lead receivers in receiving yards. He will not lead them in catches. But he will lead them in TDs. If he can get 10+ TDs with Matt Cassell, he can surely get 15+ with Brady back. Maybe his record setting 22 is a little far-fetched to expect, but one thing that Brady and Moss have shown is they are TD machines when put together. Why expect anything different? And I’m giving some love to Andre Johnson. The guy had tons of receiving yards, but only had single digit TDs last year. Now with guys like Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, and Kevin Walter establishing themselves as offensive threats, defenses have others to worry about others besides just Andre Johnson. And with a gunslinger like Schaub flicking him the ball, I like Andre to continue getting his high receiving yard totals and to reach double-digit TDs, and to finish higher in the fantasy point standings than Larry Fitzgerald and Megatron.

Prediction: Pierre Thomas will be a top-10 back.
Every draft I’ve done since June I’ve wanted this guy on my roster. He’s officially my man-crush for the year. With Thomas, sometimes you have to look at the offensive system instead of the player. For example, if you ask me who’s more talented, Pierre Thomas or Steven Jackson, I’d tell you Jackson 10 times out of 10. But in fantasy, give me Thomas on my team. He’s in an explosive offense where he’s the featured back (let’s be real: Reggie Bush is no threat whatsoever. None.), which means he will have numerous scoring chances. Steven Jackson is on an offense that will rarely be on their opponent’s side of the field, which obviously is not good if he’s on your fantasy team. Thomas proved last year he has a knack for finding the endzone, and with McAllister gone and a great training camp in the books, he’s ready for elite fantasy status.

Prediction: Matt Ryan will be a better fantasy QB than Kurt Warner.
A very specific prediction and it’s all about value. Last year I took Warner as my big sleeper pick and that worked out well for me. But this year I’m not as high on him, as there seem to be more things against him than for him. Yes, he has the amazing receiving corps which will ensure he reaches 20+ TD status. But other than that, I worry. He’s still an older QB who lost his offensive coordinator, has a questionable running game, and has a tendency to throw the occasional pick or two. Is he someone you want to invest a 2nd or 3rd round pick in? For me, I’ll wait to the 6th or 7th round and take a Matt Ryan. The kid threw for more than 20 touchdowns as a rookie. Another year in the system, the emergence of Roddy White and the addition of Tony Gonzalez, and the sky is the limit for this kid. 25+ TDs is not unreasonable, and he could be this year’s Aaron Rodgers (a top-5 fantasy QB when all is said and done).

Prediction: The best rookie RB will be…Donald Brown.
You have Moreno in Denver, Greene in New York, McCoy in Philly, and Wells in Arizona as the other primary impact rookie backs. Moreno is the most talented, but I don’t think he will get enough touches in Josh McDaniels’ “I hate RBs” system. Greene is in a run-heavy offense, but has Thomas Jones and Leon Washington taking carries away. McCoy has been spectacular thus far, but if Westbrook is healthy, he’s not going to see the field as much (and a prediction inside a prediction: Westbrook will play in at least 14 games). Wells could be the starter in Arizona, but I will never trust him just because he is an injury waiting to happen. Then there’s Donald Brown. Great in the preseason thus far and the coaches in Indy have stated that he will split reps with Joseph Addai. With Addai coming off a poor year and being fragile like Wells, there’s a good chance Brown takes over this starting job and never looks back. And again, it’s all about the system. Indy has a great offense, which means Brown will get a lot of opportunities in that red zone, and that’s what I want to see.

Prediction: Marion Barber and Felix Jones will make you go, “Man, I should have drafted those guys when I had the chance”.
In most mock drafts these guys seem to get bypassed a lot and left on the board way too long. This might be an understandable reaction due to the time-share that these two will have, but that’s no reason to let them slide past you in a draft. Marion Barber is back in his “closer” role, meaning he will get the majority of goal line and 4th quarter touches, which should be music to any fantasy owner’s ears as he was extremely productive in that role two years ago (a top fantasy back!). And Felix Jones is a stud. If Barber wasn’t there to vulture TDs, this guy would be a top-10 pick. His moves are absolutely electric. He will have 1,000 yards rushing and at least 5 TDs if he’s healthy, which, if you take him in around the 10th round, would be a tremendous value, yes? And I have a feeling Dallas will try to run the ball more to set up the pass, so look for each guy to get their fair share of carries. The Dallas running game will be good this year.

Prediction: Jay Cutler, Terrell Owens, Ronnie Brown, and Steven Jackson will not live up to their draft ranking.
In my opinion, they’re all overvalued in expert draft rankings. Talented, sure, but not worthy of the place they’re being picked at due to the numerous question marks each possesses. With Brown and Jackson, they are both injury risks and are too up and down for my liking. If you’re drafting a player with one of your top-3 picks you want consistency, which neither provides. T.O. is in Buffalo with an unproven QB- which is scary enough- but this preseason he has been bothered by an injured toe, which is the scariest news to me. Toe injuries seem to plague players all season long, and that’s the last thing I want my stud WR to be dealing with. I know it’s his contract year, but the risk just doesn’t justify the reward to me at this point (plus I think Buffalo will implode this year). And I don’t understand the hype with Cutler. He’s moving to Chicago where the weather is worse, the receiving corps are worse, and the offense is more conservative. What makes you think he’s going to put up better numbers than last year??? Plus he’s an interception machine. Seriously, the guy is an idiot. The way he got himself out of Denver, the fight with Urlacher, and calling out Hester…sheesh, no thanks on that tool bag.

Prediction: DeAngelo Williams is the running back to own in Carolina, and he’ll be productive this year.
Everyone is down on Williams because they don’t think he’ll reach his 20 TD total from last year. Well, duh. And just because Brady probably won’t reach 50 doesn’t mean you still don’t take him with a first or second round pick. Everyone is worried that Williams will lose touches (or his job) to Stewart as well. But don’t be! Williams is the starter, and Stewart has shown he has trouble staying on the field. Even now Stewart is struggling with a hamstring injury while Williams has been looking great. Carolina still has a great offensive line and relies on the run, meaning Williams is still going to get plenty of touches. And much like the Giants have shown, you can have two great (fantasy) running backs. Don’t hate on Williams just because Stewart is there. Prediction: 1350 yards, 12 TDs.

Prediction: Rashad Jennings will become a name you know that you never heard of before.
See my first prediction. A Steve Slaton-esque year, perhaps?

Prediction: Ahman Green is rumored to be close to signing with St. Louis. If that happens, SJax will get hurt in Week 16 and Green will start in his place and run for 5 TDs…against Kevin’s team in the fantasy playoffs (causing him to lose the matchup).
The one prediction I want to come true the most. I only hope I get to see Kevin’s face as it happens. You want to talk about priceless…

~Mikey D