14th sounds about right, doesn’t it? Losing Draymond Green, Austin Thornton, and Brandon Wood, you had to figure MSU would fall from last year’s top-10 ranking. Seems like the only squabbling with the initial rankings we can make is why Michigan and Ohio State are perceived to be so good (#5 and #4, respectively). Personally, I’m happy with the initial polls. MSU does its best work away from the limelight, so let the attention fall on IU, Michigan, and OSU. MSU needs some time to grow and develop, to find its identity, and to let players find their roles. Hopefully that will happen without much scrutiny to start year.
For me, the question about the MSU basketball team this year will be, “How good can they be?” That’s a question that’s going to be impossible to answer these first few months. This team will run 11 players out on the court, so the depth and talent is there, but how it will mesh, how the roles are defined, and most importantly, who becomes the vocal leader, will take time. I would imagine there will be a lot of tinkering with line-ups to begin the year. Already, in the two exhibition games, Izzo has tried out all sorts of combos, both in the frontcourt and backcourt. I think the only thing for certain is that Appling, Harris, and Dawson are going to start the year.
I’m going to try my best to temper my expectations. If this team comes together, with the talent it has, it could be a Final Four-caliber team. On the other hand, if it doesn’t develop for one reason or another, it might flame out early in the tournament. That’s the thing with young teams- you just never know what you’re going to get.
MSU 2012-2013 Roster
Derrick Nix- C (senior)
Adreian Payne- C (junior)
Keith Appling- PG (junior)
Russell Byrd- SF (sophomore)
Brandan Kearney- G (sophomore)
Branden Dawson- SF (sophomore)
Alex Gauna- PF (sophomore)
Travis Trice- PG (sophomore)
Denzel Valentine- G (freshman)
Gary Harris- G (freshman)
Matt Costello- PF (freshman)
We only have three upperclassmen! It’s crazy because some of these guys feel like they’ve been around for awhile. Now while it’s a long shot this actually happens, if all we lose next year is Nix (and no early NBA departures), we’re bringing back quite an experienced team. But that’s for next year. Here’s how the starting line-up is projected to look, although I’m skeptical this is how it will look halfway into the season:
PG- Keith Appling
SG- Gary Harris
SF- Branden Dawson
PF- Adreian Payne
C- Derrick Nix
It’s hard for me to envision both Payne and Nix starting together. I think we’ll see it to begin the season, but I like the idea of one subbing in for another throughout the course of a game. What if they both get into foul trouble to start a game? That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Gauna and Costello, something I’m not sure they’re ready to handle. So we’ll see.
What’s been great so far through practices and the first two exhibitions is that Gary Harris has grabbed that starting guard spot opposite of Appling. Watching Gary in the first exhibition, he seems like an upgrade over Wood. I don’t know if he has Thornton’s shooting stroke (not many do), but he’s an overall better player than both already. Having Applying and Harris in the backcourt together makes one of the nation’s- yes, the nation’s- best defensive backcourts, period. You throw in Branden Dawson’s tenacity on defense, the disruptiveness of Payne and Nix, and Izzo’s pension for running in transition, and you can begin to see this team’s potential.
Schedule
Here’s
a look at the non-conference schedule:
-UConn
(in Germany)
-Kansas
(in Atlanta)
-@
Miami FL (ACC Challenge)
-Texas
Obviously
the first two out of the gate are big.
MSU is definitely more talented than UConn, but these season opening
games can be sloppy, so anything can happen, especially on a neutral
court. The Jayhawks are an even tougher
test, but the fact that MSU has to play them on the Tuesday following their
Friday game in Germany makes me extremely nervous. I can very easily picture Kansas taking it to
us in the second half of that game due to fatigue.
I
think we caught a break this year in the ACC Challenge, even though the game is
on the road. Miami is still in
rebuilding mode, so hopefully that will be a nice road test, but a win. The same can be said with Texas. They are a young team in rebuild mode, so
hopefully with the game at home we can sneak a quality win in before the
Christmas break.
Here’s
a look at the Big Ten schedule:
-@Minnesota
-Purdue
-@Iowa
-Nebraska
-@Penn State
-Ohio
State
-@Wisconsin
-@Indiana
-Illinois
-Minnesota
-@Purdue
-Michigan
-@Nebraska
-Indiana
-@Ohio
State
-@Michigan
-Wisconsin
-Northwestern
It
is imperative we get off to a good start in the B1G. While Minnesota, Purdue, and Iowa aren’t
cakewalks, they are must wins considering we have stretch of Ohio State,
@Wisconsin, and @Indiana. While that
stretch seems rough, towards the end of the year it gets much worse: Indiana, @Ohio
State, @Michigan, Wisconsin. Eek. Start off 5-0 or 4-1, and the split some of
the games against the top foes, and MSU should be in good shape.
The Freshmen
What
are we getting? Gary Harris is a top-10
recruit who I have mentioned plenty about in the past. Having him choose us over Purdue, Indiana,
and Kentucky was absolutely huge. He’s
already established himself as a starter, and can do it on both ends of the court. Gary will not be the flashiest guy on the
court. That’s not his style. But the guy will quietly get 10-15 points a
night, hit a couple threes, play lockdown defense, and most importantly, he won’t
do many dumb things. The kid just has a
smart IQ for basketball. He won’t force
anything, and more often than not will make the right play. For a freshmen, he’s ahead of his time.
Denzel
Valentine, a local kids for Lansing-Eastern, is a legacy recruit. He’s a do-it-all player, but he’s going to
need some time to develop. His jumpshot
needs some work, and he needs to learn to play within himself. While he sounds like a typical freshmen in
that respect, he did earn some high praise from Izzo over the summer, as Izzo
compared his game to Magic Johnson.
While Valentine will more than likely not become Magic, his passing is
superb. He’s a playmaker, and guys love
playing with him. Look for him to be one
of those guys that gets better and better as the season progresses, stealing
minutes away from Byrd and Kearney.
Matt
Costello. I think he’s going to be my
favorite. He’s the Mr. Basketball winner
for the state of Michigan, and he’s one tough dude. He’s a physical player, and will fit right in
with the MSU style of basketball. He’s
also got some range on his shot, and is not afraid to step out and hit a
15-foot jumper. Like Valentine, he’s
raw. Learning Izzo’s system does not
come overnight, and I’m guessing in the beginning Costello will make more than
one defensive miscue (seems to happen with all MSU big men). But over time, he’s going to be a very solid,
tough player for State.
Kenny
Kaminiski is our fourth freshmen, but there’s not much point in discussing him
this year. He hurt his shoulder over the
summer, and will more than likely be red-shirting this year.
If
you’d like more info on the freshmen, The Only Colors just did a piece on the
new guys today, coincidentally.
Prediction
Record: (22-8)
(#5 Seed in the NCAA Tournament)
Losses: Kansas, Ohio
State, @Wisconsin, @Indiana, @Purdue, Indiana, @Ohio State, @Michigan
Big Ten Record:
11-7 (4th Place)
Big Ten
Tournament: 2nd Round Loss
NCAA Tournament:
Sweet 16
Such
a tough team to predict this year. I
want to believe they’ll do better, record-wise and in the tournaments, but it’s
going to be so hard with a loaded B1G and such a young team. What I think is going to hurt the most is the
lack of a Draymond Green-type leader. I
think we can deal with the loss of his production, but when the times get
tough, who is going to pull the team up?
Who is going to put the team on their back? Appling?
Nix??? I think the lack of a
crunch-time guy and a closer will be evident against the top competition, and
eventually will hurt us in the end. Last
season I viewed this year as a growing year, and I don’t want to change my view
based on high hopes.
What
I really want to see is growth from the start of the year to the end. I don’t want to see a bunch of mental
mistakes. I want to see Appling hit
3s. I want to see Byrd contribute. I want to see Nix make lay-ups consistently. I want Dawson to stay healthy and do
Dawson-like things. I want to see Harris
emerge as a rock-solid starter. I want
our bench to be the best in the B1G. I
want Trice to be lethal from 3-point range.
I toughness and I want rebounding.
I want old-school MSU basketball.
And
no drama. Please no drama.
~Mikey D
